Predictions: Winners of Newmarket Municipal Election

Here are my predictions for the outcome of the municipal election, (note: these are not endorsements).

Voter turn out: 35%

Candidates had plenty of examples to choose from to fire up the electorate for change but only one or two took advantage of the opportunity effectively.  The Newmarket Era and The Newmarket Chambers did their best to pour cold water on any enthusiasm for change.  Most voters are resigned to the status quo and that will keep the majority home on election day.

Mayor:  Tony Van Bynen re-elected

Only a select few actually likes the job Tony has done but he is the devil we know.  Chris Campbell and Dorian Baxter would both be upgrades to town council but neither ran their campaign well enough to unseat the Mayor.

Regional Councillor:  John Taylor re-elected

John Taylor should have been unseated but his challenger has not run an effective campaign.  Wolk relied almost exclusively on social media to challenge Taylor and the on line audience is simply too small to draw enough interest/ votes to defeat Taylor.

Ward 1:  Tom Vegh re-elected

The advantage of incumbency goes to Vegh who has been sloppy in his campaigning but not so bad as to be defeated.  Jarrah has plenty of baggage to knock him out of the running while Cena hasn't been able to show much momentum in the race.

Ward 2:  Dave Kerwin re-elected

Judy Poulin has made it interesting but with five candidates running, this ward splits the votes and sticks with the incumbent.

Ward 3:  Jane Twinney re-elected.

Victor Woodhouse has been over-the-top aggressive with lawn signs and that is turning voters off.  If the election day was a week ago, Victor might have won but momentum has since shifted.  Ole Madsen seems like a nice person but he is simply in the background.  In reality, this is a two person race and I expect Jane will take it.

Ward 4:  Tom Hempen re-elected

You could excuse Ward 4 residents if they weren't aware that there was an election taking place.  This very quiet race only benefits the incumbent.  Expect Hempen to cruise to an easy victory.

Ward 5:  John Heckbert elected

Joe Sponga was lazy thinking he wouldn't have to campaign this time.  He took his re-election for granted but on the final day to register, Ann Martin and John Heckbert jumped in the race.  I predict that Martin and Sponga split the downtown vote allowing Heckbert to run up the middle to take this seat.  Eibel will be lucky to break 100 votes.

Ward 6:  Maddie Di Muccio re-elected

As much as the Gruesome Twosome would like to believe that Maddie is vulnerable, she fully deserves to be re-elected and Ward 6 voters know it.  Revelations this week from Darryl Wolk and Lucille Abate that they declined an offer from an unnamed person for a fully funded campaign with up to 8 council endorsements only serves to doom Broome-Plumley's bid.  Ian Johnston will finish a very distant third.

Ward 7:  John Blommesteyn elected

Of the four candidates in the race, only John B. seems interested in winning.  He is the only candidate who updates Facebook, blogs, and the only one of the four to have participated in the The Newmarket Era's Facebook debate.  Bisanz made a serious tactical error when she linked herself so closely to Van Bynen's platform and even canvassed Glenway with the Mayor.  Her close ties to Van Bynen are making many Ward 7 voters extremely uncomfortable.