Election 2014 Prediction

Many in the media like to gaze into their crystal balls and prognosticate about how voters are feeling and more specifically, how they are likely to vote. 

In Newmarket, it doesn't take any expensive scientific polls, voodoo magic, or supernatural abilities to determine how 2014 is going to turn out. 

Let me be the first to call it - in 2014, Newmarket Ontario will have its first ever female mayor, Maddie Di Muccio.

Full disclosure, I have never spoken to Councillor Di Muccio and I don't know whether she is actually interested in running for the mayor's chair.  I am only saying that if she wants the job, it is her's for the taking. 

And I have the facts to back up this assertion.

Newmarket Mayor Tony Van Bynen has been at the helm for two terms and has been on council for four terms in all.  Every government has a 'best before" date and Van Bynen's has come and gone.  He has run out of steam and he looks tired.  Several times this term, he has been made to look utterly stupid by Councillor Di Muccio and his latest Integrity Commissioner investigation makes him look weak, (at best), and/or childish, (at worst). 

Looking back at his two terms in office, there are very few accomplishments that would recommend Van Bynen to convince voters to give him a third time at bat. 

The issues are many:

1) The number of times town facilities had to close because of emergency repairs in the past three years
2) The mess on Davis Drive with construction and the coming storm of building the same on Yonge Street
3) The Magna Centre lawsuit that cost Newmarket dearly
4) The repeated abuse of closed door meetings this term which Councillor Di Muccio has cleverly described at "secret meetings"
5) And the way Councillor Di Muccio has masterfully framed the 2014 voter question on Mayor Van Bynen's track record for hiking taxes and related spin from him saying that these tax increases no big deal. 

Van Bynen is dead wrong about that. 

Is there any proof to back me up?  I recognize that Newmarket is too small to have any voter intention polling taking place.  Yet there is a report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses that signals what ordinary folks are feeling. 

Here are the specific poll questions that torpedo Van Bynen's chances for re-election:

• When Newmarket small business owners were asked to rate the value-for-money of public services, 50% of respondents said "Poor".
• When asked about reasonableness of property tax levels, 49% of Newmarket small business owners responded with "Poor". 
• And when asked about how effective the mayor's administration was at controlling government wage levels, a whopping 85% of these respondents said, "Poor".    

"Poor.  Poor.  Poor."  That pretty much sums up Mayor Van Bynen's track record over the last two terms. 

What these results show is that people don't feel that Newmarket is well run and aren't happy with the level of taxes.  That clearly means that Tony Van Bynen is toast in 2014.  People want change and Councillor Di Muccio represents that change. Who else but her has worked hard to be the voice of fiscal restraint on council and established her bona fides while fighting to end the rampant spending and creative accounting taking place under Van Bynen? 

Some connected insiders may be quick to dismiss Councillor Di Muccio because of the Integrity Commissioner controversies.  My own research shows that opinion is wrong.  My discussions with many people gives me certain confidence that people see these antics for what they are -- politics.  Rather than be concerned about her professionalism, in fact many are impressed that the Councillor has thus far refused to back down when challenged. 

"Who would you rather have fighting on behalf of residents," is a rhetorical question that I have heard often.

Political insiders marvel at Toronto Mayor hanging on to a 45% approval rating despite his admitted issues with alcohol and drugs.  They forget that there is a significant portion of the population that is committed to the "stop the gravy train" message despite the behaviour of the messenger.  The approval rating is reflective of Ford's platform and not necessarily to the man himself.

In Newmarket, the "respect for taxpayers" Councillor doesn't carry any of the baggage as Rob Ford.  Despite plans by Van Bynen and Taylor to try to paint her with the same brush as Ford, they have a failed strategy on their hands.  The more that Van Bynen and Taylor (forever dubbed "Double Standard") attack Di Muccio, the more ridiculous they look simply because they did not address Chris Emanuel's DUI.  Most people that I speak to recognize this clearly as hypocrisy.

If Ford can garner 45% at this point in his scandalous term, I have no doubt that Di Muccio can win the mayoralty chains with 60-65% of cast ballots.  While that prediction may seem bold to some and yet it is hard to imagine any scenario where Di Muccio doesn't romp to an easy victory in 2014. 

Two terms of Van Bynen has been enough.  Now it is up to Di Muccio to step forward and take charge.